Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 11.239328 12.884622 14.659929 16.714530 19.023357 21.534146 24.467625
2025-05-11 8.615385 10.793298 13.329595 16.487837 20.300433 24.738832 30.280384
2025-05-18 7.349501 9.748788 12.682312 16.507520 21.335336 27.195179 34.811525
2025-05-25 6.451729 9.007399 12.270565 16.702077 22.516512 29.833181 39.676361
2025-06-01 5.691431 8.314114 11.793035 16.687998 23.329729 31.950071 43.892223
2025-06-08 5.022421 7.653931 11.270506 16.528193 23.884540 33.704501 47.673394
2025-06-15 4.561636 7.225088 11.005164 16.664687 24.803707 35.943109 52.163723
2025-06-22 4.270114 7.005575 11.002882 17.148709 26.207381 38.884442 57.730854
2025-06-29 3.840290 6.529154 10.575869 16.965603 26.617782 40.426738 61.380219
2025-07-06 3.313594 5.845761 9.774256 16.149014 26.022391 40.467122 62.842236
2025-07-13 3.129999 5.694947 9.776170 16.549963 27.259299 43.216189 68.352564
2025-07-20 2.946572 5.524890 9.729295 16.861341 28.362042 45.800476 73.714190
2025-07-27 2.690160 5.211064 9.432073 16.761717 28.832917 47.479805 77.838235
2025-08-03 2.433779 4.872150 9.065150 16.518600 29.054129 48.778325 81.432667
2025-08-10 2.251598 4.647866 8.871617 16.543821 29.698627 50.749071 86.134845
2025-08-17 2.113604 4.491779 8.782675 16.736831 30.623458 53.196676 91.683576
2025-08-24 1.957800 4.285610 8.586208 16.723395 31.189334 55.076438 96.382623
2025-08-31 1.796526 4.052151 8.320018 16.563056 31.484860 56.512780 100.402050
2025-09-07 1.689007 3.916133 8.223304 16.699888 32.299018 58.835848 105.963182
2025-09-14 1.632477 3.880131 8.313127 17.184795 33.751649 62.290470 113.542739
2025-09-21 1.502616 3.675408 8.058741 17.001354 33.982334 63.655477 117.625603
2025-09-28 1.316822 3.329099 7.495209 16.183217 32.997131 62.857174 117.950434
2025-10-05 1.271259 3.291874 7.554381 16.584927 34.301391 66.129735 125.456606